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Do these numbers tell you anything? Can you tell who won the game? Germany advanced, thanks to a historic victory. Yet according to the stats, looks like it was a close one. Counting stuff and dumping the raw data in front of the audience without any further analysis, is what TV has been doing for decades. There are niche shows and websites where tactics and stats get broken down, but data needs to be processed and evaluated.
Analytical content therefore goes online after the games ended. Big websites like Kicker , SportBild or Spox are all about transfer rumours, slideshows and interviews. Transfer imminent?
But they are all about quantity, not quality. A lovely through ball by Thiago takes only a split second to perform. Is Hummels the inferior passer of the two? And I actually see a huge flaw in ExpG, since the stat suggests that a shot from a certain area of the field has a certain chance of going in. There are no identical situations in football. In the USA the majority of the public knows what a sack or a rebound is, while I know few people here in Germany who know what ExpG is. Beating defenders adds quality to a play, the more defenders you take out, the higher the quality of a play.
To analyse every play as a separate entity and adjust for quality is genius. In this video German only, but the illustrations speak for themselves you can get an idea how it works. It all comes down to the number of defenders in your way before and after a certain play, this logic can also be applied to dribbling events, turnovers and interceptions as well.
In the above Vidal example, he wins back the ball in a situation where Bayern was pretty vulnerable, that counts for more than an interception with six Bayern teammates behind him.
Impect further determined that beating defenders is more valuable to an offense than getting the ball past pressing opponent strikers. The Packing-Rate metric shows that Germany took out 61 more players than Brazil. The Impect numbers are more conclusive, Germany was much better in beating defenders than the Selecao. Big difference. Finally, there is a stat that can really show you who deserves credit.
The pass by Hummels was great, but the running lane and timing of Reus was just as great. If Hummels misplaces the pass or Reus mistimes his run, the play is dead. At the same time the sample size that needs to be analysed gets a lot smaller, which speeds up the compilation and analysis of data. It was a legendary goal that actually consisted of two world class plays:. Kroos beat 85 defenders per game! Coaches might save their jobs once they can present statistical evidence that their team gets unlucky each week.
Guys like Kroos or Xhaka might make as much money as strikers one day. Speed and overpowering physicality of a player can be lost through injuries and age. Now clubs can find out if a prospect can play valuable passes or if he is simply faster and stronger than the opponents he faces. The stats Reinartz and Hegeler came up with are nothing less than a quantum leap for football analytics, so naturally there is high demand. That client list proves that Impect is on to something. According to former Bayern star and ARD employee Mehmet Scholl, the data can be compiled so quickly that Packing numbers in real time are possible.
We also have no clue whether an open access database will be available to the public at some point or if this technology will be kept behind closed doors. Lahm or Maldini? Ronaldo or Messi? Zidane or Netzer? Luis Suarez or Klinsmann?
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